'Black Swan' and a 'Perfect Storm'

The topic of risk management is a crucial aspect of any project or business, and different methodologies can be used to identify and manage risks. A comparison of various risk process methodologies is presented in a diagram by Hillson. However, the question remains whether one method is superior to another, based on research and experience.

Hillson, D 2009, Managing risk in projects, Gower Pub, Farnham, England. P29

Furthermore, 'Black Swan' and 'Perfect Storm' are two terms that are commonly used in the context of risk management. A 'Black Swan' event refers to an occurrence that was previously unknown and unpredictable, leading to unforeseen consequences. This could be due to a lack of awareness or understanding of the risks involved, or a failure to consider all possible scenarios during risk analysis.

An example of a 'Black Swan' event is the Bhopal gas tragedy, which occurred in 1984 and resulted in the release of 30 tons of highly toxic gas, killing 20,000 people. The impact of this disaster is still being felt today, more than 30 years later.

On the other hand, a 'Perfect Storm' is a situation where multiple factors or events coincide to create a scenario where things go wrong. This could be due to a lack of coordination between different teams, inadequate planning, or unforeseen circumstances that were not taken into account during risk analysis.

One example of a 'Perfect Storm' could be the lack of cloud security systems in organizations with low technological growth and weak security infrastructure. This can lead to the loss of passwords and confidential data, which insurance may not be able to cover. Emerging large organizations such as Google and Outlook, with their competitive ideas, make it difficult for smaller, long-existing companies to survive in the market.

In conclusion, understanding the trends in project management and discussing the ways in which quality management and Six Sigma can identify and control project variations is essential to prevent 'Perfect Storm' scenarios. While it is impossible to predict and prevent all 'Black Swan' events, thorough risk analysis and a proactive approach to risk management can help mitigate their impact.


http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2014/12/bhopal-the-worlds-worst-industrial-disaster-30-years-later/100864/ - By Alan Taylor